The theory of the diffusion of innovation applies to the energy transition. There are three main aspects of the energy transition: energy efficiency moderates demand growth the decarbonisation of the electricity sector and the electrification of energy end-use sectors. Key industries of solar PV, wind, batteries and Electric Vehicles (EVs). The spectacular fall in prices and the increase in flexibility provided by digitisation has driven very rapid growth (known as S curves) for the We believe it highly likely therefore that emerging markets will increasingly source their energy demand growth from renewable sources not from fossil fuels. They have less fossil fuel legacy infrastructure, rising energy dependency, and are anxious to seize the opportunities of the renewables age. Emerging markets have higher population density, more pollution, and rising energy demand. The motor of change now lies in the emerging markets, which is where all the growth in energy demand lies. In addition to this, digitisation has become a key enabler of the energy transition. For each doubling in capacity their costs have been falling at around 20%, a phenomenon that we expect to continue. Three major technologies of solar PV, wind and Lithium-ion (li-ion) batteries enjoy both rapid growth and technology-driven learning curves. In turn these are driving an emerging market energy leapfrog and very rapid growth for new energy technologies. The energy transition has a number of drivers, which can be described in terms of necessity, policy and technology. Key Findings What is driving the energy transition?
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